07 March 2008

U.S. Ships Move Close to Lebanon

U.S. Navy warships have moved close to Lebanon, apparently to send a message to Syria that the US is concerned about political stability in Lebanon, as a result of a political dispute over the presidency there.

My Syrian friend who invited me to Syria is worried that I'll be seen as suspicious if I go, so I'm both worried and pissed-off.

What kind of message are we sending Syria anyway? Keep your hands off Lebanon? Does Syria really think we're going to invade if they don't? Unfortunately nobody in the US administration seems to have read Thomas Schelling's Strategy of Conflict. One thing you don't want to do is make a threat you're not willing to fulfill.

But we've known for a long time that this administration doesn't have the slightest strategic sense. They think strategy is simply telling others what to do, when it's really changing their beliefs and actions in a way that benefits oneself, which is usually easier to do if you don't tell them what to do, but just change your own actions so they have no other rational options. But, then, Shelling was smart. And you have to have a few smarts to understand him.

3 comments:

James K said...

Furthermore, even if invasion was a good idea, what would you invade with? Unless Bush is going to retrain UASF pilots as infantrymen, luftwaffe felddivision style, I don't see where the troops would come from.

In any case attacking or threatening Syria will only increase its prestige and support at home. Verbally attacking these ocuntries only makes them stronger.

Johanna Hanley said...

Great, I really did not need to read that. As if I wasn't already a bit nervous about your trip.

James Hanley said...

And because there's no way for us to sustain an invasion, due to lack of troops, it's a hollow threat. And if I can figure it out that easy, who can't?