Obama Acts Presidential

Barack Obama has announced that next month he will go to the Middle East, with stops in Israel, Jordan, and....the West Bank, where he'll meet with Palestinian leaders (he'll also go to Germany, France and the UK). This follows his minor miscue in which he expressed his support for an undivided Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, which he later "clarified," saying he suported Israeli-Palestinian negotiations over Israel's future.

It might seem strange to leave the campaign trail at such a crucial time, or perhaps evidence that he thinks he's got the election all wrapped up. But in fact this trip is a campaign event--it's crucial for Obama to appear presidential, as well as to bolster his weak foreign policy credentials. And taking such a trip for the purpose of appearing presidential should not be derided. The public wants their candidates to appear presidential, so effectively you can't become president unless you act like one. I think it's a strong political move on Obama's part.

I also think it's a good move because he is likely to win, and he doesn't have enough foreign policy experience. Consequently he needs to get over to the Middle East, get his feet on the ground, and meet the major players. If Obama has paid attention to the presidencies of Clinton and Bush, he'll understand that, like it or not, foreign affairs usually dominates a presidency and distracts the executive from all the domestic issues that are his personal interests. Of course there's a great danger in the trip as well. The wrong comments about the Palestinian-Israel issue could lose the support of important voting blocs or paint him as too naive to be trusted with the job.

In political science, we see a continuum between pure spectacle and pure policy. Truman's Marshall Plan could be called pure policy, while Bush's stunt on the aircraft carrier was pure spectacle. As a campaign event, Obama's trip has a heavy dose of spectacle, but as a potential learning experience for our likely next chief diplomat, the policy aspect is significant and could ultimately trump the spectacle aspect. That can only happen if Obama knows how to ask the right questions and how to listen. I sincerely hope that he does.

Talk vs. Action

Middleeastnews.com reports:

Occupied Jerusalem: After N.Y. Times report of Israel's DF drill to attack Iran, The Islamic Republic of Iran on Friday warned Israel that it would retaliate to any Israeli attack with a "strong blow" that will daze Israel's core.

Of course Israel's Defense Forces are drilling for an attack; that's what successful armies do. Preparing plans for possible scenarios is the primary job of a military's general staff. And as long as Ahmadinejad keeps talking about destrying Israel and acting as though he's going to develop nuclear weapons, Israel will keep planning and drilling. Iran, meanwhile, responds with vague threats, which leads me to suspect they don't have a general staff that's actually preparing plans for countering Israel and drilling their troops for that specific eventuality.

Fortunately, other Iranian officials are sending signals that Ahmadinejad doesn't quite have the full confidence of Iran's government. Hopefully there won't be any need for Israel to act, consequently no need for Iran to fail to back up it's feeble threat.

Coincidentally, I read in a Public Administration textbook this past weekend that when Woodrow Wilson became president--Wilson, a political scientist and expert in public administration--he didn't know what military general staff's do. When World War I began, he happened to learn that the general staff was developing plans for fighting Germany, and he thought they were actually preparing to do so. He called in the Secretary of War and demanded that everyone involved be fired, at which point the "founder" of public administration as a field of study got a most important lesson in public administration.

Heh, heh. I never do get tired of bashing on Wilson, a racist and staunch advocate of presidential government. If his grave wasn't in the National Cathedral in Washington, I'd be tempted to piss upon it.

U.S. Ships Move Close to Lebanon

U.S. Navy warships have moved close to Lebanon, apparently to send a message to Syria that the US is concerned about political stability in Lebanon, as a result of a political dispute over the presidency there.

My Syrian friend who invited me to Syria is worried that I'll be seen as suspicious if I go, so I'm both worried and pissed-off.

What kind of message are we sending Syria anyway? Keep your hands off Lebanon? Does Syria really think we're going to invade if they don't? Unfortunately nobody in the US administration seems to have read Thomas Schelling's Strategy of Conflict. One thing you don't want to do is make a threat you're not willing to fulfill.

But we've known for a long time that this administration doesn't have the slightest strategic sense. They think strategy is simply telling others what to do, when it's really changing their beliefs and actions in a way that benefits oneself, which is usually easier to do if you don't tell them what to do, but just change your own actions so they have no other rational options. But, then, Shelling was smart. And you have to have a few smarts to understand him.