In Which I Challenge Ed Brayton to a Friendly Wager

In a post about James Dobson's claim that he'll sit out the election if John McCain is the Republican nominee., Ed Brayton calls Dobson a liar (true enough, I think), and makes the following prediction.

...he's pretending that he'll sit out the election in order to gain maximum leverage in cutting a deal with McCain in exchange for his support...And the deal will be that when there is a Supreme Court opening, McCain picks from their short list.

I could be a fool, but I agree with the Republicans who claim McCain isn't that conservative. I also think McCain knows damn well that his support is coming from the middle. So I don't think he'd commit to such a deal to get Dobson's endorsement, and I don't think he'll appoint an ultra-conservative to the Supreme Court.

So I challenged Ed to a friendly wager.

If Dobson endorses McCain,, and if McCain is elected, and if McCain gets a Supreme Court appointment, I bet he chooses a moderate. I prefer beer, scotch, or bourbon as the wager, but I don't know if Ed's a drinker--I guess I could stoop to wearing a Duke shirt if I lose.

I think the odds of McCain winning are slim, so this bet would probably be a safe one for both parties.

And this isn't intended as a slam at Ed, who runs what I think is the best political blog on the web. Mostly I just want to put myself on record, so if I'm wrong I can't deny it (you know, like those pathetic creationists and IDiots constantly do).