14 May 2008

Signs of the Republican Apocalypse

The Republicans lost another traditionally safe congressional seat yesterday. According to news reports, this makes three losses of safe seats in a row. This bodes ill for John McCain this fall. The odds are that Republicans will regain these seats within the next few elections; given how thoroughly most congressional districts have been partisanly gerrymandered, it’s rare for the opposition to hold such a seat for more than two or three terms. But that won’t be any help to McCain, as trends like this do tend to play out as election losses for the incumbent party. Still, campaigns matter, and with Obama appearing to have a safe lead over Clinton, the important question of whether a black candidate can get enough of the middle class white vote remains.

1 comment:

James K said...

Two people I work with have a $20 bet going that Obama can beat McCain. Personally I think he can, but it should be an interesting comparison.

It seems to me that both candidates represent the archetypes of liberal and conservative thought respectively. I'm not talking about policy here, but rather general outlook.

McCain sees the world as consisting mostly of threats, so he opposes social change and favours hawkish foreign policy. Whereas Obama sees mostly opportunities, leading him to go for the hope and change angle.

I think the election will come down to whether Americans see more opportunities, or more threats.