I Has Smart Students

Two of my students came to my office yesterday during a class break. One of them had taken my political economy class, so I asked her to analyze the Cuban agricultural underproduction/food importation issue. She said, "Well, I would guess that they'll probably grow more sugar and tobacco for export, so it won't reduce their food imports. Then they'll have more money, so they might even import more food."

It's always nice to know that students actually learned--that is, actually retained--something from your classes.

By the way, she's a finalist for a Fulbright award. One of the best students I've had.

And, somehow, I can't seem to convince anyone that Cubans are going to eat sugared tobacco.

Another Blow to Socialism--and Economic Reporting

A Blow to Socialism
In yet another implicit admission that socialist "production" is an oxymoron, Raul Castro has announced that Cuba will begin letting private farmers and cooperatives farm unused land. According to the reports, about half of Cuba's arable land is unused or under-used, while the 35% that is farmed by private cooperatives accounts for 60% of the island's ag production.

Gee, wasn't the idea that Socialist governments could plan better than capitalist economies, so there would be more production of necessities, and less waste? Or maybe it was that as the material basis of society changed, ideology would change, and the need for incentives based on self-interest would disappear, as everyone produced according to their ability, and took only according to their need?

Another Blow to Economic Reporting
The article mentions that Cuba spends $1.6 billion annually on food imports (around $140 per person), obviously treating that as a symptom of agricultural under-production.

But the U.S. is the world's largest food exporter, and it imports over $60 billion of food each year, or over $200 per person.

That is, food imports aren't necessarily caused by lack of production. And in Cuba a lot of the ag production is tobacco and sugar--increasing that won't help directly feed Cubans, so it wouldn't reduce food imports. If Cuba starts producing more, it could produce food that could directly feed Cubans, food that could be exported (for cash, which can be used to import more food, indirectly feeding Cubans), or tobacco and sugar that can be exported (again, indirectly feeding Cubans by using the cash to buy imported food).

Most likely, if Cuban agricultural production increases, adding wealth to the Cuban economy, Cuban food imports will rise, rather than fall.

Bad Day for Dictators

Perves Musharraf was defeated in the Pakistani elections, and Cuba's Fidel Castro finally admitted he was too old and ill to continue playing benevolent dictator.

Maybe democracy will finally succeed in Pakistan. Musharraf was the one who undermined it with his 1999 coup, but apparently the Pakistani populace had gotten a taste of it and likes being able to elect its own leaders. Now we just have to hope that (a) the army behaves itself, and (b) the new government can deal with Pakistan's problems, particularly Muslim fundamentalists distrustful of political liberty, so that it's not too weak and susceptible to another coup.

As for Cuba, nothing's going to change immediately, of course, because Fidel's brother Raul has been in charge for nearly two years. But with the revolutionary figurehead gone, and Raul aging himself, perhaps the day is not too far away when popular sovereignty comes to Cuba.

Of course the US could help that process if we just had a president with the balls to extend diplomatic relations to Cuba. Hordes of American tourists bringing hard cash to the island would increase the local wealth, which usually seems to spur demands for political participation.