Herbert Simon's Travel Theorem

Anything that can be learned by a normal American adult on a trip to a foreign country (of less than one year’s duration) can be learned more quickly, cheaply, and easily by visiting the San Diego Public Library.

I have always had my doubts about Simon's Travel Theorem, based solely on my travels in the U.S., and now I doubt it even more. There are two categories of knowledge that distinguish what you learn on a visit to a place and what you learn in a book about it.

1. Those things that cannot be described in a book. This includes sounds and smells. Theoretically, you could capture the sounds in an audio recording, but the second category explains why that might be insufficient. Smells we simply have no way to categorize. The Mediterranean, for example, smells different than the Pacific. How could one possibly understand how it smells differently without actually smelling both? I would also include sights, as pictures are inevitably only a small portion of the whole to be seen, even in one glance.
2. The Context of Detail. Possibly the detail could be described in a book, but in prose form it would be so overwhelming that noone could really learn it. The myraid of details are what form the context for real understanding, as opposed to rote learning (The Ummayad Mosque is over a thousand years old, blah blah).

There are two caveats that possibly could support Simon's claim. First, he is focusing on the efficiency of learning, a benefit/cost calculation at the margin. Perhaps these extensions of what can be learned in a library simply aren't worth the cost of the travel. But as the Austrian economists would tell us, there is no objective benefit here, only a subjective value. So Simon cannot categorically claim it is inefficient to pay the costs of travel to learn these things. (Of course I am covering only a minority of my cost, thanks to a research grant, so as a Public Choice theorist, I cannot categorically claim that the cost/benefit calculus of this trip is positive--it is for me, given how small a share of the cost I am bearing, but we all know how distorting these subsidies are. Presumably my college "thinks" it is a net positive to pay for my travel learning.)

Second, Simon is explicitly referring to the "normal" American adult. As a college professor, I am possibly excluded from that category. But clearly not in all ways--I am normal when it comes to grocery shopping, car buying, etc. So the burden would be on Simon to demonstrate that I am not normal in travel. Also, I think it might be unfairly denigrating to normal American adults to assume that the sounds, smells, and context would not be a part of their learning.

I am a fan of Simon's work, but when I read his biography it seemed to me that he was insufferably smug about his travel theorem. I took that itself as an indication that it had weaknesses, and couldn't wholly be supported by rational argument.

Finally, I should add a third category, which is somewhat outside his theorem, but nonetheless important, and that is what you find out about yourself in travel, especially to places where you are distinctly out of place. I have noticed that the most interesting and self-confident people I know have all traveled abroad--and that is a value that can't be gained from books.

If Simon's travel theorem has some validity, and I think it has some, it is very limited in scope, to the basic facts that can easily be presented in text or photographic form.

Syrians Love Americans

So far, every Syrian who has asked me where I am from has said, "Welcome," with a big smile. Almost nobody assumes I'm an American, they guess British or Russian most often, sometimes Italian. But when I say, "America," the response is always favorable.

Today a soldier guarding the port, complete with rifle slung over his shoulder, smiled, asked where I was from ("Britannia, Russiya?), then gave me the big welcome smile, shook my hand enthusiastically, and put his hand to his heart (a characteristic Syrian gesture). A Syrian soldier with a gun, shaking hands with an American!

I need to write a letter to Barack Obama, advising him on U.S. Syrian relations. These people really want to be friends with us.

Roman Ruins in Latakkia

If you're into Roman ruins, be sure to visit the National Museum in Latakkia when you come here. I took some pictures of some ancient statues outside (no photography allowed inside). I did manage to get a picture of the nude male before my film was used up, but didn't get the nude female. Just my luck.

The main building is from the Roman era, and has the classic Roman vaulted rooms, which I'd seen pictures of, but had never seen in person before. An aesthetically beautiful design--I'm almost sad that it's not practical or structurally necessary anymore.

I noticed that the junction of the vaulted ceilings didn't have any spandrels. Gould was wrong, and Dennett was right! Actually, Gould should have been deeply ashamed of his spandrels argument. Not only was he dead wrong in his example (and in a way that is ridiculously easy to demonstrate), he perpetually--I think purposefully--conflated adaptations with features that weren't adaptations. I remember reading his article, and his claim that the cleft in the chin wasn't an adaptation, just a point where the two jawbones met, and thinking, "That's his argument? That something no one has ever claimed is a selected-for adaptation is, in fact, not an adaptation?" I never saw a case where he disputed another biologist's claim about a feature being an adaptation.

All that, just from looking at an old Roman building in Latakkia. I may be over-educated.

P.S. and I still can't view my own blog. I'm told "It is forbidden." Keep that in mind, you infidels--who knows what harm could befall you from reading this blog. Who knows, you may all turn from God and rebel against your government. Don't say I didn't warn you.

Gay Porn, OK. Blogger, Not So Good.

Bizarrely, I can publish to my blogger site, but I can't view the blog itself because it's being filtered out. I guess blogger.com is more dangerous than gay porn.

Syria, Friend or Foe?

One of the young men who guided me to this internet cafe asked me why my government hated Syria. I couldn't give him a good answer.

The U.S. lists Syria as a state sponsor of terror, because it supports Palestinian insurgency groups, and Hezbollah in Lebanon. That is, it has followed the U.S.'s Central American model. Of course Syria just might be pissed off that Israel has never returned the territory it captured in war. As an objective observer I say that's what they get for invading Israel, but as a pragmatist, those types of issues have to be dealt with. If we could broker an Israel-Syrian land deal, whereby Israel returns territory in exchange for Syrian recognition of Israel's right to exist, Syria might be less inclined to devote resources to Palestinian military groups.

It has also allowed weapons to flow into Iraq, to the detriment of U.S. forces. Of course given the U.S.'s belligerency to Syria, it may simply want to ensure that the U.S. doesn't get the idea that invasion for purposes of regime change in the Middle East is easy.

Finally, Syria is allegedly attempting to build nuclear weapons. Israel bombed an alleged nuclear facility last fall, with surprisingly little public criticism from Syria. Israel and the U.S.claim Syria is working on nuclear weapons, while Syria claims it is just trying to develop nuclear power. Syria is not one of the richer oil countries in the Middle East (it is not a member of OPEC), and nuclear power might be a good policy for them.

Still, let's take their claim skeptically. Why would Syria want nuclear weapons? Perhaps because Israel has them? Perhaps because, like the rest of the world, they've noticed that the U.S. doesn't fuck around as much with countries that have nukes? I think the liklihood of Syria nuking Israel is remote--they surely know how the U.S. would retaliate. But they want to be taken seriously as a sovereign country that doesn't need to kowtow to the U.S., and becoming nuclear capable seems to accomplish that.

The best solution? Better relations with them. We should lean on Israel to get them to make some concessions (while still continuing to support them, as a democratic country). It won't be all sweetness and light, and we're not all going to hold hands and sing Kumbayah, but it's the only way we can actually move forward toward more stability in the region.

The U.S. needs to stop shaking swords at Syria, and reach out for a handshake.

Latakia

It's 99 degrees centigrade in Latakia, or at least that's what the coffee vending machine says. It could be referring to the temperature of the coffee, but as it's alternating with the date and time, it seems unlikely. Then again, so does 99 centigrade.

Latakia is distinctly different from Damascus. There are many fewer women wearing the chador, and comparatively few even wearing the headscarf. Many, perhaps most, are wearing short sleeve or sleeveless blouses.

It's worth noting that many women in Syria don't wear the chador, but wear a long, knee-length or below, coat. But whether coat or chador, it's only an outer wrapping, and a glance down at the ankles (a good way to avoid making inappropriate eye contact) often reveals blue jeans or dress slacks, and stylish shoes.

My friend tells me there is something of a religious revival in Syria these days. A great number of mosques have been built in recent years, and more are going up. Another person I met today said all the shops I see along the streets are new (although to the western eye prepared with the framing of teeming third world streets, they look as if they've always been there), and that until about 10 years ago you could only buy clothing in government shops, with, apparently, the standard socialist sense of style. And, of course, Syria is technically a secular country. So I wonder if I am seeing a return to chador, rather than the uninterrupted continuation of a tradition. My friend is concerned about the growing religiosity, and I share that. Hopefully Syria does not become Saudi Arabia.

Secularism is clearly here at work in Latakia, however. In addition to the prevalence of western-clad women, I am sitting in a three story internet cafe, where so far I have heard no Arabic music, but have heard such western classics as Hotel California, the James Bond theme, the theme from Dr. Zhivago, and the theme from For a Few Dollars More, and the theme from, I believe, Pale Rider.

To top it off, a previous user of this computer was viewing some hard-core gay porn sites. The government of Syria isn't that secular, and homosexuality is frowned upon. But either the sites aren't required to be blocked, or nobody is enforcing the ban vigorously, because this is the second time I have noticed that on a computer I've accessed. In keeping with Syria's short period of control by France, vive le queers.


gay porn

Bus Trip to Latakia

Travelled by bus today to Latakia, on the Mediterranean, and Syria's largest port. The clerk at the hotel told me to take a taxi to Bilal Square, and catch the bus that runs every half hour, at a cost of about 40 Syrian Pounts (about 87 cents). As usual, the taxi driver didn't understand my attempts to pronounce my destination, but when he understood I wanted to go to Latakia, he took me to a bus station that I think is nowhere near the one I was initially directed to. I was completely lost when he dropped me off, but was pointed toward a building where I had to go through security. I placed my bag on the conveyor belt, and walked through the scanner, setting it off. But the police were lounging around, and I wasn't the only one setting off the scanner, so apparently they're not really worried about terrorists on their intercity buses.

Through security, I found myself on a lane with food shops and, for lack of a better word, travel agencies, each calling out for business. Again, someone directed me to a place selling tickets to Latakia. After I had bought my ticket, I heard the hawkers of other agencies yelling, "Latakia." My general impression is that I was initially directed toward the government bus line, but instead was taken to a place with competing bus companies--presumably one of the developments of the last decade's economic liberalization. It cost 250, rather than 40, pounds, but the bus was a very new motorcoach, and on the ride they give you coffee, water, a taffy-like candy, and a newspaper, all served by an attendant who keeps checking to see if you want refills. So for 5 1/2 bucks American, I call it a good deal. This was no third world bus ride, with people clinging to the top and holding chickens in their lap while the bus constantly threatens to go off the edge of the mountain. In fact the driver was the most cautious I've seen yet in Syria--I think he was actually maintaining the speed limit, and I can only attribute that to the market at work.

My seat companion, who exhibited the usual Syrian hospitality by directing me to the loading zone, which I never would have found by myself, is a teacher in Latakia. He gave me his phone number and asked me to call him in two days. He had actually invited me to his house instead of a hotel, before remembering he had to go out of town tomorrow.

This is a great place, and looks to me as though it is in the beginning stages of tremendous economic development. Now if I can just put in effort to learn the language, I'll be in great shape here.

Syrian Hospitality

A couple days ago I went up the mountain to the town of Zanadabi. Looking down the hillside, I could see some neighborhoods with lots of trees (most of the mountain is bare), and it looked so inviting I decided to try to get there. I ended up walking 2 miles down the main road that goes back to Damascus, without seeing a side street that went where I wanted to go. Just as I was deciding it was time to turn around, I came up to a type of garage half-filled with sacks of cement, and a man sitting on a green plastic lawn chair.

He looked up at me, smiled, and immediately got up and offered me his chair. I accepted, and he got another chair and sat down beside me, and we tried to converse, but without much success. He offered me tea, and had to run across the street for water, which he got started boiling on a hotplate, then ran up the street to a little store to buy the tea. All that for a stranger who was just passing by. I sat there for about 1/2 and hour, and we exchanged names and contact information.

Although I am subject to a few wary looks, most of the people I have talked to are very friendly and helpful. One evening I asked a man for directions back to my hotel, and he seemed not just pleased, but honored to be able to point me in the right direction. There is a characteristic gesture, putting the hand over the heart, that they make in these cases. I don't understand it's exact meaning, and when it is proper to use it, but the general message of good will is very evident.

Wireless Access, Too

The small restaurant I had lunch at today has wireless internet access. Mind you, this was not in a Sheraton hotel, but in the crowded, narrow alley filled with tailors, shoemakers, and other little types of businesses--that is, a typical developing world alley.

I don't normally travel with my laptop, since I like to go light, so it's no benefit to me. But it clearly was to the two patrons checking their email and scanning the news.

Once upon a time I thought that capitalism was bad...but then I hadn't yet studied economics or travelled to Damascus. I am more and more amazed all the time at the power of markets and the entrpreneurial spirit, and at the ways the market works to the benefit of average people.

Livin' it Up on the Internet

I'm amazed, but only partially, by the number of internt cafes available. My friend, Maher, said before I came that he had heard that one opened up in Damascus. What an undercount. There're 4 million people in Damascus, it's a big city, so I wouldnt't try to guess how many there are, but I haven't had trouble finding them, just as I didn't in Dubai.

Consider the economics of it. Buy a half-dozen to a dozen used computers,a few chairs and desks, and that's your capital investment. It's really, really cheap. Heck, I could get this many computers for free from my college, and Goodwill won't take them, so the market for used PCs of that sort has to be a buyer's market.

Then you rent a small shop space. Fortunately, to serve the clientele you're most likely to get, you can do that in a place where the rent won't be high... a place where backpacking travelers (the luxury hotels provide internet access to guests) and either immigrant workers or families of workers who have emigrated cluster. And young people, but not rich young people or they'll have it at home.

And for that small capital investment, a person can open their own business, becoming an entrepreneur and improving their life. Maybe after a few years they sell it and move up to a more lucrative business, or maybe they save and open another internet cafe.

And this is how the developing world will develop, if their governments and well-intentioned but misguided development agencies will leave them alone.