China Lectures Syria on Economic Development

I found this on Marginal Revolution, one of the best economics blogs.

"What can we do," the Syrian Finance minister asked, "to increase Chinese investment?" "Well," the Chinese minister replied, "before we invest in Syria you most open your markets, cut your subsidies, and reduce regulation..."

I like Syria, and I hope they follow the advice. From what I saw, I think it's possible they will, although slowly.

Bosra--Yet More Roman Ruins--and Dutch Soccer

I've just returned to Dimashq from Bosra, the site of a beautiful, and mostly intact, Roman amphiteater seating up to 15,000 people. The old city, which still has about 1500 people living in it, has numerous Roman columns still standing, the remains of an ancient church cum mosque, and a ruined cathedral that still has part of a picture of angels and whatnot painted on plaster. There is a reservoir on the top of the hill, and down in the old city there were baths, which you can still see, that had hot and cold running water.

If you make it to Bosra, ask for Ahmed Maqdad to guide you around. He's a 25 year old guy who's been guiding there since he was 8, and has worked with some of the Italian archeaological teams. He knows his stuff, and is a very nice and generous guy (he bought me dinner!). He says houses in the old city are selling for 20,000,000 Syrian pounds (around USD 400,000), which is a considerable increase just in the last few years. Based on our further discussion, the price increase is being driven by the government, which is willing to purchase the old houses so it can tear them down, then use the basalt stone blocks from which they are built to rebuild portions of the old city. (I would guess that some of the blocks came from there originally anyway, as people pulled from the rubble of old building to build new houses.) Ahmed will also sell you what he claims are genuine antiquities that he's found throughout the ruins; coins, figurines from the Roman era, Byzantine crosses, etc. He claims it's legal, but I'm somewhat dubious, although as he says, similar items are for sale openly in the souk in Damascus. But even if it's legal to take them out of Syria, I'm not entirely certain about the legality of bringing them into the U.S.

Back in Dimashq (Damascus), I had lunch with Maher, who said that he's noticed that fewer women are covered up than before. He's hopeful that the religious fervor that stimulated the building of so many mosques is waning. I have to hope he's right.

Last night I turned on the TV in my hotel room, and stumbled across the beginning of the Dutch-Italian European Cup game. Having married into a Dutch family, I have become a fan of the Orange. Their 3-nil victory was a huge win for Holland--maybe their biggest win in decades. (And the fact that they were clearly offsides on their first goal doesn't matter--they solidly outplayed the Italians, and would have won 2-nil if that goal had been nullified.) I'm sure my wife and father-in-law are quite happy today.

This is my last post from Damascus, as I am about to grab a taxi and head to the Airport, where I will spend the next 29 hours traveling (about 8 of that just sitting in airports waiting to transfer). It will be good to be home. As much fun as I've had, it will be nice to get back to a place where there are few car horns, where I can see grass and lay down on it, where I can have peanut butter, and, perhaps my strangest craving, where I can get some good Thai food.

More Roman Ruins

On my third attempt, I finally got to the National Museum in Damascus when it was open. More Roman antiquities, and Byzantine, and Bronze Age...it's overwhelming.

The museum is chock-full of sculptures, friezes, mosaics, manuscripts, textiles, tombs, etc. My favorite piece was a curved bas relief, apparently once part of a massive column, that depicted the Roman Emperor Trajan speaking to his troops. There were over 30 separate human figures in the piece, and each wholly distinct, with its own facial expression. Unusually, several figures in the foreground were depicted from behind, bringing the viewer into the image as yet another listener standing behind them. One figure had his eyes away from the emporer, trying to calm his horse. The quality of the work, the sculptor's skill, is incredible.

The tapestries room has some silk pieces that were imported to Syria from China in the 3rd century--and we talk about globablization as though it's something new in human history.

A security guard took me to a couple of locked rooms, one a synagogue discovered in the 1920s and transported to Damascus, and the other a tomb, with the most incredible sculptures, that had also been brought from somewhere else. When you go, be sure they open up the synagogue and tomb for you, they seem happy to do it, and you won't regret asking.

Outside, in a sort of plaza with a winding path, are hundreds of stone tombs, statues, large vessels, mosaics, and capitals of Corinthian columns--hundreds! I'm sure I was walking around with my mouth wide open, and several times I just burst out with, "My god!" because it was all so unbelievable. Dumbfounded. Just absolutely dumbfounded.

And to think I began the day upset because my plan to go to Bosra didn't work out.

Leaving Latakia

Or Lattakia, or Latakkia, or whatever. I've seen each spelling, and each is a reasonable latinazation of the Greek. But what I didn't realize is that it is also Laodicea. I remember reading about that in the Bible! How about that; if I ever read the Bible again, I can say, "Hey, I was there!"

I liked Latakia. Like Damascus, it was unredeemably dirty; people chuck their trash everywhere. But it was very pleasant along the Mediterranean at night. As I walked along the beach road, there enticing smells. However I had just eaten a whole fish--that is, one that had been put before me whole, which never fails to confuse me a bit. I figured it out, though, and it was delicious.

Returning to Latakia, I was somewhat depressed at the number of women in chador and/or veils. There were far fewer in Latakia, which seems to be much more liberal. Not only were the majority of women wearing short sleeve or even sleeveless shirts, I saw several men in shorts, which I haven't seen at all in Damascus.

I was walking down the street yesterday, and a barber stepped out of his shop onto the sidewalk and called to me. Thinking it was just a comeon to get my business, I said, no, no, but then he held up what was unmistakably a can of beer wrapped in a plastic bag. So I joined him for a couple beers. Yes, I like Latakia. I ended up exchanging my fake Rolex with him--it's a gift-giving culture here, and being friendly seemed more important than keeping a fake watch. Besides, it's even better to say I have a watch that was given to me by a Syrian.

I did get a shave, though. It seems as though it's safe for an American to let a Syrian put a sharp blade to his throat.

I found out that the region around Latakia has a large proportion of Alwai (or Alewites), a somewhat obscure Muslim sect. Their doctrine is rather secretive--apparently only their religious readers get to know what's in their distinct set of writings in addition to the Quran--but from what litle is known about them, it seems to be a syncretic religion, in which the people kept many aspects of their traditional religion when they adopted Islam. Notably, they reject the idea that a mere mortal can actually live by the 5 pillars of Islam, so they believe you should just try to live a good life, as the prophet did. That may be the key to the liberalism of Latakia. It's damned hard to be fundamentalist when you don't know what the fundamentals of your faith are, and no great spiritual achievements are demanded of you.

There are a number of Christians, there, too. The hotel I stayed at had an icon of Mary with a very small but quite adult looking Jesus in her arms, and the 3-story, 24-hour internet cafe had a sign saying, "In God We Trust." Or maybe they are just announcing their fondness for American money.

Interestingly, although the Alawi are a distinct minority, President Assad is Alawi, as are most of his inner circle. That, coupled with the secularism of the Baath Party, doesn't sit well with all "real" Muslims here, which led to the Muslim Brotherhood uprising in the 1970s and '80s that was brutally suppressed by the artillery bombardment of the city of Hama.

If there really is a religious revival of sorts going on in Syria, and the leadership is from a minority sect whose Muslimness is suspect, and secular to boot, it could be bad news.

I always think of Learned Hand's comment on the spirit of liberty being that spirit which is not too sure it is right. The problem with fundamentalists is that they are too sure they're right. While democracy might be nice, continued secularism might be even more important for the future of Syria.

Herbert Simon's Travel Theorem

Anything that can be learned by a normal American adult on a trip to a foreign country (of less than one year’s duration) can be learned more quickly, cheaply, and easily by visiting the San Diego Public Library.

I have always had my doubts about Simon's Travel Theorem, based solely on my travels in the U.S., and now I doubt it even more. There are two categories of knowledge that distinguish what you learn on a visit to a place and what you learn in a book about it.

1. Those things that cannot be described in a book. This includes sounds and smells. Theoretically, you could capture the sounds in an audio recording, but the second category explains why that might be insufficient. Smells we simply have no way to categorize. The Mediterranean, for example, smells different than the Pacific. How could one possibly understand how it smells differently without actually smelling both? I would also include sights, as pictures are inevitably only a small portion of the whole to be seen, even in one glance.
2. The Context of Detail. Possibly the detail could be described in a book, but in prose form it would be so overwhelming that noone could really learn it. The myraid of details are what form the context for real understanding, as opposed to rote learning (The Ummayad Mosque is over a thousand years old, blah blah).

There are two caveats that possibly could support Simon's claim. First, he is focusing on the efficiency of learning, a benefit/cost calculation at the margin. Perhaps these extensions of what can be learned in a library simply aren't worth the cost of the travel. But as the Austrian economists would tell us, there is no objective benefit here, only a subjective value. So Simon cannot categorically claim it is inefficient to pay the costs of travel to learn these things. (Of course I am covering only a minority of my cost, thanks to a research grant, so as a Public Choice theorist, I cannot categorically claim that the cost/benefit calculus of this trip is positive--it is for me, given how small a share of the cost I am bearing, but we all know how distorting these subsidies are. Presumably my college "thinks" it is a net positive to pay for my travel learning.)

Second, Simon is explicitly referring to the "normal" American adult. As a college professor, I am possibly excluded from that category. But clearly not in all ways--I am normal when it comes to grocery shopping, car buying, etc. So the burden would be on Simon to demonstrate that I am not normal in travel. Also, I think it might be unfairly denigrating to normal American adults to assume that the sounds, smells, and context would not be a part of their learning.

I am a fan of Simon's work, but when I read his biography it seemed to me that he was insufferably smug about his travel theorem. I took that itself as an indication that it had weaknesses, and couldn't wholly be supported by rational argument.

Finally, I should add a third category, which is somewhat outside his theorem, but nonetheless important, and that is what you find out about yourself in travel, especially to places where you are distinctly out of place. I have noticed that the most interesting and self-confident people I know have all traveled abroad--and that is a value that can't be gained from books.

If Simon's travel theorem has some validity, and I think it has some, it is very limited in scope, to the basic facts that can easily be presented in text or photographic form.

Syrians Love Americans

So far, every Syrian who has asked me where I am from has said, "Welcome," with a big smile. Almost nobody assumes I'm an American, they guess British or Russian most often, sometimes Italian. But when I say, "America," the response is always favorable.

Today a soldier guarding the port, complete with rifle slung over his shoulder, smiled, asked where I was from ("Britannia, Russiya?), then gave me the big welcome smile, shook my hand enthusiastically, and put his hand to his heart (a characteristic Syrian gesture). A Syrian soldier with a gun, shaking hands with an American!

I need to write a letter to Barack Obama, advising him on U.S. Syrian relations. These people really want to be friends with us.

Roman Ruins in Latakkia

If you're into Roman ruins, be sure to visit the National Museum in Latakkia when you come here. I took some pictures of some ancient statues outside (no photography allowed inside). I did manage to get a picture of the nude male before my film was used up, but didn't get the nude female. Just my luck.

The main building is from the Roman era, and has the classic Roman vaulted rooms, which I'd seen pictures of, but had never seen in person before. An aesthetically beautiful design--I'm almost sad that it's not practical or structurally necessary anymore.

I noticed that the junction of the vaulted ceilings didn't have any spandrels. Gould was wrong, and Dennett was right! Actually, Gould should have been deeply ashamed of his spandrels argument. Not only was he dead wrong in his example (and in a way that is ridiculously easy to demonstrate), he perpetually--I think purposefully--conflated adaptations with features that weren't adaptations. I remember reading his article, and his claim that the cleft in the chin wasn't an adaptation, just a point where the two jawbones met, and thinking, "That's his argument? That something no one has ever claimed is a selected-for adaptation is, in fact, not an adaptation?" I never saw a case where he disputed another biologist's claim about a feature being an adaptation.

All that, just from looking at an old Roman building in Latakkia. I may be over-educated.

P.S. and I still can't view my own blog. I'm told "It is forbidden." Keep that in mind, you infidels--who knows what harm could befall you from reading this blog. Who knows, you may all turn from God and rebel against your government. Don't say I didn't warn you.

Syria, Friend or Foe?

One of the young men who guided me to this internet cafe asked me why my government hated Syria. I couldn't give him a good answer.

The U.S. lists Syria as a state sponsor of terror, because it supports Palestinian insurgency groups, and Hezbollah in Lebanon. That is, it has followed the U.S.'s Central American model. Of course Syria just might be pissed off that Israel has never returned the territory it captured in war. As an objective observer I say that's what they get for invading Israel, but as a pragmatist, those types of issues have to be dealt with. If we could broker an Israel-Syrian land deal, whereby Israel returns territory in exchange for Syrian recognition of Israel's right to exist, Syria might be less inclined to devote resources to Palestinian military groups.

It has also allowed weapons to flow into Iraq, to the detriment of U.S. forces. Of course given the U.S.'s belligerency to Syria, it may simply want to ensure that the U.S. doesn't get the idea that invasion for purposes of regime change in the Middle East is easy.

Finally, Syria is allegedly attempting to build nuclear weapons. Israel bombed an alleged nuclear facility last fall, with surprisingly little public criticism from Syria. Israel and the U.S.claim Syria is working on nuclear weapons, while Syria claims it is just trying to develop nuclear power. Syria is not one of the richer oil countries in the Middle East (it is not a member of OPEC), and nuclear power might be a good policy for them.

Still, let's take their claim skeptically. Why would Syria want nuclear weapons? Perhaps because Israel has them? Perhaps because, like the rest of the world, they've noticed that the U.S. doesn't fuck around as much with countries that have nukes? I think the liklihood of Syria nuking Israel is remote--they surely know how the U.S. would retaliate. But they want to be taken seriously as a sovereign country that doesn't need to kowtow to the U.S., and becoming nuclear capable seems to accomplish that.

The best solution? Better relations with them. We should lean on Israel to get them to make some concessions (while still continuing to support them, as a democratic country). It won't be all sweetness and light, and we're not all going to hold hands and sing Kumbayah, but it's the only way we can actually move forward toward more stability in the region.

The U.S. needs to stop shaking swords at Syria, and reach out for a handshake.

Latakia

It's 99 degrees centigrade in Latakia, or at least that's what the coffee vending machine says. It could be referring to the temperature of the coffee, but as it's alternating with the date and time, it seems unlikely. Then again, so does 99 centigrade.

Latakia is distinctly different from Damascus. There are many fewer women wearing the chador, and comparatively few even wearing the headscarf. Many, perhaps most, are wearing short sleeve or sleeveless blouses.

It's worth noting that many women in Syria don't wear the chador, but wear a long, knee-length or below, coat. But whether coat or chador, it's only an outer wrapping, and a glance down at the ankles (a good way to avoid making inappropriate eye contact) often reveals blue jeans or dress slacks, and stylish shoes.

My friend tells me there is something of a religious revival in Syria these days. A great number of mosques have been built in recent years, and more are going up. Another person I met today said all the shops I see along the streets are new (although to the western eye prepared with the framing of teeming third world streets, they look as if they've always been there), and that until about 10 years ago you could only buy clothing in government shops, with, apparently, the standard socialist sense of style. And, of course, Syria is technically a secular country. So I wonder if I am seeing a return to chador, rather than the uninterrupted continuation of a tradition. My friend is concerned about the growing religiosity, and I share that. Hopefully Syria does not become Saudi Arabia.

Secularism is clearly here at work in Latakia, however. In addition to the prevalence of western-clad women, I am sitting in a three story internet cafe, where so far I have heard no Arabic music, but have heard such western classics as Hotel California, the James Bond theme, the theme from Dr. Zhivago, and the theme from For a Few Dollars More, and the theme from, I believe, Pale Rider.

To top it off, a previous user of this computer was viewing some hard-core gay porn sites. The government of Syria isn't that secular, and homosexuality is frowned upon. But either the sites aren't required to be blocked, or nobody is enforcing the ban vigorously, because this is the second time I have noticed that on a computer I've accessed. In keeping with Syria's short period of control by France, vive le queers.


gay porn

Bus Trip to Latakia

Travelled by bus today to Latakia, on the Mediterranean, and Syria's largest port. The clerk at the hotel told me to take a taxi to Bilal Square, and catch the bus that runs every half hour, at a cost of about 40 Syrian Pounts (about 87 cents). As usual, the taxi driver didn't understand my attempts to pronounce my destination, but when he understood I wanted to go to Latakia, he took me to a bus station that I think is nowhere near the one I was initially directed to. I was completely lost when he dropped me off, but was pointed toward a building where I had to go through security. I placed my bag on the conveyor belt, and walked through the scanner, setting it off. But the police were lounging around, and I wasn't the only one setting off the scanner, so apparently they're not really worried about terrorists on their intercity buses.

Through security, I found myself on a lane with food shops and, for lack of a better word, travel agencies, each calling out for business. Again, someone directed me to a place selling tickets to Latakia. After I had bought my ticket, I heard the hawkers of other agencies yelling, "Latakia." My general impression is that I was initially directed toward the government bus line, but instead was taken to a place with competing bus companies--presumably one of the developments of the last decade's economic liberalization. It cost 250, rather than 40, pounds, but the bus was a very new motorcoach, and on the ride they give you coffee, water, a taffy-like candy, and a newspaper, all served by an attendant who keeps checking to see if you want refills. So for 5 1/2 bucks American, I call it a good deal. This was no third world bus ride, with people clinging to the top and holding chickens in their lap while the bus constantly threatens to go off the edge of the mountain. In fact the driver was the most cautious I've seen yet in Syria--I think he was actually maintaining the speed limit, and I can only attribute that to the market at work.

My seat companion, who exhibited the usual Syrian hospitality by directing me to the loading zone, which I never would have found by myself, is a teacher in Latakia. He gave me his phone number and asked me to call him in two days. He had actually invited me to his house instead of a hotel, before remembering he had to go out of town tomorrow.

This is a great place, and looks to me as though it is in the beginning stages of tremendous economic development. Now if I can just put in effort to learn the language, I'll be in great shape here.

Syrian Hospitality

A couple days ago I went up the mountain to the town of Zanadabi. Looking down the hillside, I could see some neighborhoods with lots of trees (most of the mountain is bare), and it looked so inviting I decided to try to get there. I ended up walking 2 miles down the main road that goes back to Damascus, without seeing a side street that went where I wanted to go. Just as I was deciding it was time to turn around, I came up to a type of garage half-filled with sacks of cement, and a man sitting on a green plastic lawn chair.

He looked up at me, smiled, and immediately got up and offered me his chair. I accepted, and he got another chair and sat down beside me, and we tried to converse, but without much success. He offered me tea, and had to run across the street for water, which he got started boiling on a hotplate, then ran up the street to a little store to buy the tea. All that for a stranger who was just passing by. I sat there for about 1/2 and hour, and we exchanged names and contact information.

Although I am subject to a few wary looks, most of the people I have talked to are very friendly and helpful. One evening I asked a man for directions back to my hotel, and he seemed not just pleased, but honored to be able to point me in the right direction. There is a characteristic gesture, putting the hand over the heart, that they make in these cases. I don't understand it's exact meaning, and when it is proper to use it, but the general message of good will is very evident.

Damascus

Coming into Damascus from the airport I was at first dismayed as we passed a large number of extremely ugly block apartment buildings, all in a uniform dismal gray. This is, technically, a socialist country, and that sight certainly seemed to confirm it. Worst of all, more are being built.

But my hotel is in the city center, the old city, and it's beautiful. That is, if you like old style buildings, in various states of repair, from nearly falling down to elegantly renovated, which I do. I had a nice walk with my friend, Maher, earlier, and after dinner took a long walk around myself. This district has what I like in a city--lots of people out walking in the evening, browsing in shops, buying ice cream cones, having a late dinner, or just sitting in a sidewalk cafe drinking tea. As dark as it is, it feels safe, safer than I ever felt in San Francisco after dark. I hope that's not just an illusion, and of course it could be this particular district.

Syria is culturally and politically fascinating. It's technically a secular and socialist state, governed by the Baath party, an Arabic nationalist and socialist party, originally with a hefty dose of Marxism, which accounts for it secularism. But its nationalized industries are faltering badly, and it's trying to shift to a more market economy. Unfortunately the government doesn't dare shut down its money-losing businesses because it fears throwing so many people out of jobs. But its secularism makes it a more liberal culture than you would expect. While many, it seems most, women wear headscarves, very few wear the full hijab, and many do not wear even the scarf. Many of the younger women in particular are dressed very stylishly, verging on provocatively. Stores, like the Bennetons I passed, have window displays with mannequins in short sundresses or bikinis. This ain't Saudi Arabia by a long shot.

And when I sat down to write this, I found this page in the recent history on the computer, about gays in Damascus. Not exactly an open topic, it appears, but not too deeply hidden either.

Countdown to Syria

I leave for Syria in a week. It's a typical American disease to be an adult who's never traveled abroad, but I'm glad I'm finally getting the cure. If I can find an internet cafe in Damascus--and surely there is one--I'll post a couple comments while I'm there. Otherwise, this blog will be pretty silent until mid-June. I'm going to do the indoor skiing in Dubai, and visit the monasteries of Mar Mousa and Maalula in Syria, and if I can work it out I'll visit Petra in Jordan.

And from now on when I encourage students to study abroad, I can do so with a little more integrity. And of course I'll be able to say such pretentious things as, "When I was sipping kahua arabea in the Souk Al-Hamidieh in Damascus..."

U.S. Ships Move Close to Lebanon

U.S. Navy warships have moved close to Lebanon, apparently to send a message to Syria that the US is concerned about political stability in Lebanon, as a result of a political dispute over the presidency there.

My Syrian friend who invited me to Syria is worried that I'll be seen as suspicious if I go, so I'm both worried and pissed-off.

What kind of message are we sending Syria anyway? Keep your hands off Lebanon? Does Syria really think we're going to invade if they don't? Unfortunately nobody in the US administration seems to have read Thomas Schelling's Strategy of Conflict. One thing you don't want to do is make a threat you're not willing to fulfill.

But we've known for a long time that this administration doesn't have the slightest strategic sense. They think strategy is simply telling others what to do, when it's really changing their beliefs and actions in a way that benefits oneself, which is usually easier to do if you don't tell them what to do, but just change your own actions so they have no other rational options. But, then, Shelling was smart. And you have to have a few smarts to understand him.

I'm Going to Syria

My college's Faculty Research Committee just granted my request for a research grant to travel to Syria. I haven't been this excited since I received a letter of acceptance to grad school.

I devoutly believe international travel is crucially important, and now I finally get to live up to to my own beliefs. I'm fling into Dubai, and will spend two days there before going on to Damascus. In all, I'll probably be gone about 2 weeks. I plan to see the most modern (Ski Dubai, here I come!) and most traditional (the soukhs) parts of the Arabic world. Given that my Arabic consists of knowing the alphabet, and a handful of words (street, house, coffee), I should be wonderfully lost and confused.

I haven't travelled internationally before, although I've been in 47 U.S. states and 5 Canadian provinces. (Canada isn't international, for an American, it's just our 51st, but un-united, state, where they mostly speak the same language, and the biggest difficulty is figuring out how much that liter of gas costs per gallon). Amazingly, I occasionally get students who've never traveled out of Michigan and don't have any interest in it. I don't have any interest in them, either. On the other hand, I met with a prospective student yesterday who's already spent 4 months in Thailand where she did an internship with the UN, and she's still in high school!

My wife's father is from the Netherlands, and her mom is from Indonesia. My wife--Johanna--has visited Europe many times, including a 6 week trip with her best friend when they were in their early 20s. My kids have already traveled from East Coast to West Coast, including Alaska. Two years ago we did a 4 week trip that included visiting Denali, taking an Alaskan Cruise, then renting a van and driving slowly back to Michigan. 4 weeks, and the kids were perfect little travelers, loving every minute of it. We hope to send them to study in the Netherlands, staying with cousins, when they're in high school, and I'll refuse to pay for college if they don't study abroad. My wife and I have tried to set a great example for our kids, and I can't wait to shop in the soukhs for exotic gifts for all of them.

Damascus, one of the oldest continuosly inhabited cities; the Mediterannean; the Euphrates; Christian monasteries in the mountains, within a deeply Islamic country that is officially secular. I'm so excited I can hardly sleep.